Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 24 2020 | 8975 | 41322 | 283 | 73 | 461 | 649 |
| December 25 2020 | 9000 | 41459 | 284 | 74 | 463 | 631 |
| December 26 2020 | 9000 | 41530 | 285 | 74 | 400 | 546 |
| December 27 2020 | 9064 | 41601 | 289 | 74 | 415 | 578 |
| December 28 2020 | 9089 | 41636 | 290 | 75 | 390 | 575 |
| December 29 2020 | 9118 | 41722 | 291 | 75 | 367 | 581 |
| December 30 2020 | 9182 | 41846 | 292 | 75 | 389 | 582 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 2.3 | 3.9% | 15 | 0.13% | 29 | 0.25% |
| 10-19 | 7 | 3.3 | 9.5% | 37 | 0.27% | 74 | 0.54% |
| 20-29 | 5 | 6.9 | 19% | 74 | 0.35% | 112 | 0.54% |
| 30-39 | 7 | 5.3 | 14.1% | 55 | 0.4% | 91 | 0.67% |
| 40-49 | 9 | 3.9 | 11.1% | 43 | 0.41% | 61 | 0.58% |
| 50-59 | 17 | 7.0 | 14.1% | 55 | 0.44% | 77 | 0.61% |
| 60-69 | 6 | 4.3 | 11.6% | 45 | 0.39% | 56 | 0.49% |
| 70+ | 11 | 6.3 | 16.7% | 65 | 0.62% | 82 | 0.78% |
| All ages | 64 | 39.1 | 100% | 389 | 0.37% | 582 | 0.56% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 24 2020 | 5727 | 24729 | 168 | 65 | 264 | 413 |
| December 25 2020 | 5728 | 24776 | 168 | 65 | 252 | 355 |
| December 26 2020 | 5733 | 24821 | 168 | 65 | 229 | 325 |
| December 27 2020 | 5785 | 24852 | 169 | 65 | 247 | 361 |
| December 28 2020 | 5797 | 24881 | 171 | 65 | 225 | 334 |
| December 29 2020 | 5814 | 24927 | 173 | 65 | 210 | 338 |
| December 30 2020 | 5839 | 24993 | 173 | 65 | 214 | 335 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 1.3 | 5.6% | 12 | 0.15% | 16 | 0.21% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 2.1 | 13.1% | 28 | 0.33% | 44 | 0.52% |
| 20-29 | 3 | 3.9 | 14.5% | 31 | 0.44% | 44 | 0.62% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 3.3 | 15% | 32 | 0.38% | 59 | 0.7% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 2.3 | 12.1% | 26 | 0.34% | 45 | 0.58% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 2.3 | 9.8% | 21 | 0.22% | 39 | 0.4% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 3.1 | 14.5% | 31 | 0.37% | 50 | 0.59% |
| 70+ | 3 | 3.0 | 15.4% | 33 | 0.46% | 38 | 0.53% |
| All ages | 25 | 21.3 | 100% | 214 | 0.33% | 335 | 0.52% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 24 2020 | 4342 | 16560 | 183 | 55 | 299 | 411 |
| December 25 2020 | 4366 | 16595 | 183 | 55 | 316 | 402 |
| December 26 2020 | 4366 | 16630 | 183 | 55 | 281 | 365 |
| December 27 2020 | 4393 | 16640 | 188 | 55 | 261 | 372 |
| December 28 2020 | 4398 | 16656 | 188 | 55 | 219 | 355 |
| December 29 2020 | 4404 | 16675 | 190 | 56 | 195 | 354 |
| December 30 2020 | 4435 | 16713 | 190 | 57 | 205 | 350 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.3 | 2.4% | 5 | 0.09% | 9 | 0.17% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 3.0 | 14.6% | 30 | 0.55% | 45 | 0.83% |
| 20-29 | 6 | 2.6 | 11.7% | 24 | 0.53% | 43 | 0.95% |
| 30-39 | 8 | 3.6 | 16.6% | 34 | 0.63% | 55 | 1.01% |
| 40-49 | 6 | 3.0 | 17.6% | 36 | 0.72% | 63 | 1.27% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 2.4 | 15.1% | 31 | 0.46% | 52 | 0.77% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 1.1 | 9.3% | 19 | 0.3% | 37 | 0.58% |
| 70+ | 3 | 2.1 | 12.7% | 26 | 0.41% | 46 | 0.73% |
| All ages | 31 | 18.1 | 100% | 205 | 0.45% | 350 | 0.77% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 24 2020 | 9735 | 44543 | 221 | 54 | 589 | 787 |
| December 25 2020 | 9776 | 44687 | 221 | 54 | 516 | 721 |
| December 26 2020 | 9775 | 44746 | 221 | 54 | 439 | 668 |
| December 27 2020 | 9831 | 44819 | 222 | 55 | 408 | 676 |
| December 28 2020 | 9867 | 44861 | 223 | 55 | 385 | 682 |
| December 29 2020 | 9909 | 44945 | 227 | 56 | 376 | 650 |
| December 30 2020 | 9994 | 45157 | 232 | 57 | 415 | 658 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 5 | 2.1 | 4.8% | 22 | 0.19% | 36 | 0.3% |
| 10-19 | 6 | 5.0 | 9.9% | 45 | 0.27% | 76 | 0.46% |
| 20-29 | 21 | 10.6 | 25.8% | 117 | 0.55% | 176 | 0.83% |
| 30-39 | 11 | 6.7 | 13.9% | 63 | 0.46% | 90 | 0.66% |
| 40-49 | 12 | 6.0 | 12.8% | 58 | 0.43% | 81 | 0.6% |
| 50-59 | 7 | 4.4 | 10.6% | 48 | 0.34% | 92 | 0.65% |
| 60-69 | 12 | 5.6 | 11.9% | 54 | 0.38% | 79 | 0.56% |
| 70+ | 11 | 4.0 | 10.4% | 47 | 0.36% | 67 | 0.52% |
| All ages | 85 | 44.4 | 100% | 454 | 0.38% | 697 | 0.59% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 24 2020 | 32213 | 291311 | 979 | 174 | 1560 | 2349 |
| December 25 2020 | 32374 | 292263 | 987 | 176 | 1692 | 2342 |
| December 26 2020 | 32375 | 292811 | 988 | 176 | 1522 | 2125 |
| December 27 2020 | 32555 | 293128 | 992 | 176 | 1447 | 2081 |
| December 28 2020 | 32721 | 293734 | 997 | 176 | 1402 | 2068 |
| December 29 2020 | 32790 | 293628 | 1011 | 179 | 1261 | 2108 |
| December 30 2020 | 32956 | 293528 | 1001 | 182 | 1316 | 2103 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 7 | 5.7 | 4.9% | 64 | 0.11% | 107 | 0.18% |
| 10-19 | 9 | 14.1 | 10.9% | 144 | 0.2% | 240 | 0.34% |
| 20-29 | 41 | 30.0 | 21.4% | 281 | 0.27% | 433 | 0.42% |
| 30-39 | 33 | 24.3 | 16.3% | 215 | 0.28% | 331 | 0.43% |
| 40-49 | 30 | 21.7 | 16% | 211 | 0.32% | 327 | 0.5% |
| 50-59 | 28 | 21.1 | 14.7% | 193 | 0.29% | 290 | 0.44% |
| 60-69 | 12 | 11.0 | 8.7% | 114 | 0.21% | 197 | 0.36% |
| 70+ | 6 | 7.9 | 7.1% | 94 | 0.19% | 178 | 0.36% |
| All ages | 166 | 135.9 | 100% | 1316 | 0.24% | 2103 | 0.38% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 24 2020 | 466393 | 2317710 | 20647 | 4674 | 27498 | 40294 |
| December 25 2020 | 467899 | 2324819 | 20703 | 4679 | 25503 | 37942 |
| December 26 2020 | 468531 | 2330080 | 20734 | 4683 | 23733 | 34515 |
| December 27 2020 | 470818 | 2332695 | 20829 | 4692 | 22377 | 34045 |
| December 28 2020 | 472153 | 2336531 | 20911 | 4711 | 20477 | 33258 |
| December 29 2020 | 474537 | 2340164 | 21081 | 4783 | 19186 | 32141 |
| December 30 2020 | 477292 | 2344771 | 21207 | 4818 | 20115 | 32494 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 116 | 94.0 | 4.9% | 990 | 0.15% | 1681 | 0.26% |
| 10-19 | 322 | 225.6 | 11.4% | 2299 | 0.3% | 3775 | 0.5% |
| 20-29 | 489 | 325.0 | 16.2% | 3252 | 0.43% | 5229 | 0.69% |
| 30-39 | 391 | 296.7 | 15% | 3020 | 0.4% | 4892 | 0.65% |
| 40-49 | 397 | 272.0 | 13.9% | 2800 | 0.4% | 4541 | 0.65% |
| 50-59 | 458 | 297.9 | 15.4% | 3099 | 0.38% | 4945 | 0.61% |
| 60-69 | 325 | 226.9 | 11.6% | 2327 | 0.31% | 3759 | 0.5% |
| 70+ | 258 | 218.9 | 11.6% | 2328 | 0.36% | 3672 | 0.57% |
| All ages | 2755 | 1956.9 | 100% | 20115 | 0.35% | 32494 | 0.56% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55.6 | 54.4 | 53.5 | 39.1 | 42.4 | 28% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51.8 | 21.3 | 28 | 31.5% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 77.4 | 18.1 | 29.7 | 36.7% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 45.9 | 82.7 | 38.9 | 60.9 | 29.8% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38.5 | 33.8 | 41.7 | 135.9 | 182.7 | 23.5% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55.8 | 49.9 | 69.1 | 1956.9 | 3047.9 | 28.3% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 2.4 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.57 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-01-20 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 4200"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges